Astrometric exoplanet detection with Gaia
Authors: Michael Perryman, Joel Hartman, Gáspár Bakos, Lennart Lindegren
AI-generated Key Points
- Michael Perryman, Joel Hartman, Gáspár Bakos, and Lennart Lindegren provide a revised assessment of the number of exoplanets that could be discovered by the Gaia astrometry mission.
- The authors extend previous studies to include a broader range of spectral types, distances, and magnitudes.
- Their assessment is based on a large representative sample of host stars from the TRILEGAL Galaxy population synthesis model, recent estimates of the exoplanet frequency distributions as a function of stellar type, and detailed simulations of Gaia observations using updated instrument performance and scanning laws.
- Two approaches are used to estimate detectable planetary systems: one based on the signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the astrometric signature per field crossing which allows for easy reproducibility and comparison with previous estimates; and a new metric based on orbit fitting to simulated satellite data that is more robust.
- Based on plausible assumptions about planet occurrences they find that some 21000 (+/-6000) high-mass (1-15M_J) long-period planets should be discovered out to distances of approximately 500pc for the nominal 5-year mission. This includes at least 1000-1500 planets around M dwarfs out to 100pc. For a 10-year mission duration this number rises to approximately 70000 (+/-20000).
- The authors also indicate some expected features of this exoplanet population. Among them are approximately 25-50 intermediate-period (P~2-3yr) transiting systems.
- Overall this study provides valuable insights into the potential discoveries that could be made by Gaia astrometry in terms of exoplanet detection across various spectral types and distances.
Abstract: We provide a revised assessment of the number of exoplanets that should be discovered by Gaia astrometry, extending previous studies to a broader range of spectral types, distances, and magnitudes. Our assessment is based on a large representative sample of host stars from the TRILEGAL Galaxy population synthesis model, recent estimates of the exoplanet frequency distributions as a function of stellar type, and detailed simulation of the Gaia observations using the updated instrument performance and scanning law. We use two approaches to estimate detectable planetary systems: one based on the S/N of the astrometric signature per field crossing, easily reproducible and allowing comparisons with previous estimates, and a new and more robust metric based on orbit fitting to the simulated satellite data. With some plausible assumptions on planet occurrences, we find that some 21,000 (+/-6000) high-mass (1-15M_J) long-period planets should be discovered out to distances of ~500pc for the nominal 5-yr mission (including at least 1000-1500 around M dwarfs out to 100pc), rising to some 70,000 (+/-20,000) for a 10-yr mission. We indicate some of the expected features of this exoplanet population, amongst them ~25-50 intermediate-period (P~2-3yr) transiting systems.
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