Gone Without a Bang: A Search for Failed Core-Collapse Supernovae in ZTF and Predictions for Rubin and Roman

Shion Murakawa; Paul Draghis; Kevin Burdge; Ore Gottlieb; Aaron Householder; Emma Chickles

AI summary · arXiv: 2610.30276v1 · astro-ph.HE

Gone Without a Bang: A Search for Failed Core-Collapse Supernovae in ZTF and Predictions for Rubin and Roman

Shion Murakawa, Paul Draghis, Kevin Burdge, Ore Gottlieb, Aaron Householder, Emma Chickles

Original paper Submitted to arXiv on 21 Oct. 2026 17 pages, 7 figures, submitted to ApJ License: NONEXCLUSIVE-DISTRIB 1.0

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The essentials

A search of ZTF identified 125 fading sources but no definitive failed core-collapse supernovae; simulations predict few ZTF detections and greater prospects for Rubin and Roman.

Based on the abstract only: check the details in the original paper.

Question

Can optical time-domain data from ZTF reveal stars undergoing failed core-collapse supernovae, and how many such events might ZTF, Rubin, and Roman observe?

Method

The authors searched the entire ZTF optical photometric catalog using a piecewise linear function model, selecting sources with significant dips and flat top and bottom flux. They also simulated stellar populations in Milky Way-like galaxies to estimate observable events and calculated a 99% credibility upper limit on the Milky Way rate assuming a null result.

Findings

Result The ZTF search yielded 125 fading sources, but none was definitively identified as a failed core-collapse supernova.
See the passage in the paper
We use a piecewise linear function model to search the entire ZTF optical photometric catalog for FccSNe, yielding 125 ``faders" that dip significantly with a flat top and bottom flux. Although no candidates were definitively found, some of the sources exhibit promising behavior that may indicate a direct collapse event.
Result Assuming no confirmed detections, the maximum statistical rate of failed core-collapse supernovae in the Milky Way is 147 per century at 99% credibility.
See the passage in the paper
Assuming a null result from the search, we calculate at 99\% credibility that the maximum statistical rate of FccSNe in the Milky Way is 147 per century.
Result The simulations predict that ZTF would observe 0.234 ± 0.006 failed core-collapse supernovae per century.
See the passage in the paper
This simulation predicts ZTF to observe $0.234\pm0.006$ FccSNe per century, which aligns with the lack of definitive observations in ZTF.
Authors’ interpretation The authors argue that Rubin and Roman monitoring could support population-level studies of nearby failed core-collapse supernovae.
See the passage in the paper
However, we predict that similar monitoring using the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope's Wide Field Instrument (WFI) could enable population-level studies of nearby FccSNe.

Limitations

The search did not yield any definitive candidates, so the rate constraint assumes a null result and the identified faders remain unconfirmed.
See the passage in the paper
Although no candidates were definitively found, some of the sources exhibit promising behavior that may indicate a direct collapse event.
The projected ZTF detection rate is based on simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies rather than confirmed observed events.
See the passage in the paper
To contextualize these findings, we also simulate the formation of stellar populations in Milky Way-like galaxies to estimate the expected number of FccSNe observable by ZTF.

Why it matters

The authors argue that the lack of definitive ZTF detections is consistent with their low predicted ZTF event rate. They suggest that monitoring with LSST and Roman could make population-level studies of nearby failed core-collapse supernovae possible.

Written by AI from the paper. Passages are checked word for word against the text we analysed; the rest may contain errors.

AI-generated keywords: failed core-collapse supernovae Zwicky Transient Facility direct stellar collapse Galactic event rate time-domain astronomy

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Comprehensive Summary
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Original abstract

The paper investigates whether failed core-collapse supernovae can be identified in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) optical photometric catalog. When a massive star’s core collapses, it usually produces a supernova. In some cases, however, the star may collapse directly into a compact object without a bright explosion, appearing as a star that fades and disappears. Detecting such events could help establish how often direct collapse occurs and improve our understanding of massive-star deaths. The authors search the full ZTF optical photometric catalog for sources whose brightness changes are consistent with a disappearing star. They use a piecewise linear model to identify significant fading preceded and followed by relatively flat periods. The abstract does not provide details about the model’s implementation, the criteria for selecting the final sources, or any follow-up observations, so these aspects cannot be evaluated. None of the 125 sources is definitively identified as a failed core-collapse supernova, although the authors report that some show promising behavior that could indicate direct collapse. Using the absence of confirmed events, they place a statistical upper limit on the Milky Way’s failed-supernova rate: a maximum of 147 events per century at 99% credibility. This is an upper limit, not an estimate of the Galaxy’s actual event rate. To interpret the lack of confirmed detections, the authors simulate stellar-population formation in Milky Way-like galaxies and estimate how many failed supernovae ZTF should be able to observe. They predict a yield of 0.234 ± 0.006 observable events per century. Given this low expected yield, the absence of a definitive ZTF detection is consistent with their simulations. The result highlights that a survey’s ability to constrain an event rate does not necessarily mean it is likely to detect an event during its observing period. The authors conclude that ZTF has not yet produced a confirmed failed core-collapse supernova, though a small number of fading sources warrant further attention. They suggest that future monitoring by the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope’s Wide Field Instrument (WFI) could create more opportunities to observe nearby events and support population-level studies. These conclusions are preliminary because only the paper’s title, authors, and abstract are available; the full text cannot be accessed under its license. Important details for evaluating the search and its limits—including catalog completeness, contaminant handling, assumptions behind the rate limit, and simulation inputs—are therefore unavailable. The abstract supports the reported candidate count, rate limit, and expected ZTF yield, but does not allow a more detailed assessment of how these results were derived or how robust they are.

When a Star Disappears Without a Supernova

Most massive stars end their lives in a spectacular core-collapse supernova. But some may take a quieter route: their cores collapse into compact objects without producing a bright explosion. Instead of lighting up the sky, the star could simply fade away.

Finding these “failed” supernovae would help astronomers learn how often massive stars collapse directly and what determines the final fate of a star. In Gone Without a Bang: A Search for Failed Core-Collapse Supernovae in ZTF and Predictions for Rubin and Roman, Shion Murakawa, Paul Draghis, Kevin Burdge, Ore Gottlieb, Aaron Householder, and Emma Chickles investigate whether one such event can be found in the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) optical photometric catalog.

Searching for a Star That Fades Away

A failed supernova might not produce the sudden brightening expected from a conventional explosion. Its signature could instead be a star that remains relatively steady, dims, and then stays faint. The researchers searched the full ZTF optical photometric catalog for light curves with this general pattern.

They used a piecewise linear model to look for significant fading between relatively flat periods before and after the change. In total, the search identified 125 sources. None is definitively confirmed as a failed core-collapse supernova, though the authors report that some show promising behavior and merit further attention.

The available abstract does not explain the model’s implementation or give the criteria used to select the final sources. It also does not describe follow-up observations. Those missing details make it impossible to assess how the search distinguished possible stellar disappearances from other changes in brightness.

What Does the Non-Detection Tell Us?

With no confirmed events, the authors calculate a statistical upper limit on the rate of failed supernovae in the Milky Way: at 99% credibility, the rate is no higher than 147 events per century. This figure is an upper bound, not a measurement of the Galaxy’s actual rate. It should not be read as a prediction that failed supernovae occur 147 times every century.

The distinction matters because a survey can place a limit on how common an event is without being likely to catch one. To estimate ZTF’s prospects, the authors simulate stellar-population formation in Milky Way-like galaxies and calculate how many failed supernovae the survey should be able to observe. Their predicted yield is just 0.234 ± 0.006 observable events per century.

With such a low expected yield, it is unsurprising that the search found no definitive event. The non-detection is consistent with the simulations, but it does not establish that failed supernovae are rare—or that none occurred during the survey. It shows how strongly the conclusions of a search depend on the chance that an event falls within a survey’s reach.

Looking Toward Future Surveys

The authors point to future monitoring by the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope’s Wide Field Instrument (WFI) as a way to improve the chances of finding nearby disappearing stars. More opportunities to observe such events could also help researchers move beyond individual candidates and study the population of failed supernovae.

The broader promise is clear: repeated, wide-ranging observations may reveal stars that vanish rather than explode. But a larger survey will still need careful methods for identifying genuine disappearances and separating them from other sources of fading or missing data.

A Promising Search, with Important Unknowns

These findings should be treated as preliminary. The available information consists of the paper’s title, author list, and abstract; the full text is unavailable under its license. As a result, several details needed to evaluate the search are not provided, including catalog completeness, how contaminants were handled, the assumptions behind the rate limit, and the inputs to the stellar-population simulations.

The abstract supports three main conclusions: the search found 125 sources but no confirmed failed supernova, the Milky Way rate has an upper limit of 147 events per century at 99% credibility, and simulations predict only 0.234 ± 0.006 observable events per century for ZTF. For now, a few fading sources remain intriguing leads—not proof that a star has disappeared without a bang.

Created on 30 Oct. 2026

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Gone Without a Bang: A Search for Failed Core-Collapse Supernovae in ZTF and Predictions for Rubin and Roman

The essentials

Question

Method

Findings

Limitations

Why it matters

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Definitions

When a Star Disappears Without a Supernova

Searching for a Star That Fades Away

What Does the Non-Detection Tell Us?

Looking Toward Future Surveys

A Promising Search, with Important Unknowns

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