Cross-Border Ownership and Input Access: Evidence from the Lithium Supply Chain

Authors: Kei Irizawa

Submitted to arXiv on 05 Nov. 2026
Abstract

How does cross-border ownership shape the lithium supply chain? Using global data on mines and refineries, I estimate a model in which ownership can lower refiners' effective ore costs, encourage mines to restrict spot sales, and soften competition. To study these effects, I examine policies motivated by national security concerns about reliable access to critical mineral inputs: divestiture of Chinese stakes in overseas producers and a ban on ore exports to China. Divestiture increases spot ore supply but leaves lithium output nearly unchanged, while continued trade preserves Chinese access to ore. The export ban reduces global lithium supply because refining capacity elsewhere cannot fully replace lost Chinese production. Ownership transfers do not reserve ore for domestic production; restricting Chinese access imposes a substantial supply cost at existing capacities.

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    Abstract

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    Abstract

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    Abstract

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    Abstract

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    Abstract

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  6. Related Another approach to the problem
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  7. Related Broader context
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    Abstract

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  8. Related Broader context
    Trade Intermediation and Resilience in Global Sourcing
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    This paper examines intermediaries’ role in securing imported inputs under risk, rather than ownership-based access to lithium ore.

    Abstract

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Updated on 9 November 2026.