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Trade Intermediation and Resilience in Global Sourcing
Oscar Perelló (University College London)
Abstract: I study the role of trade intermediaries in mitigating supply chain risk. Chilean intermediated imports rise and fewer firms import directly when origin-product risk increases. Firm-to-firm transactions reveal that intermediaries maintain larger and more stable supplier networks, while only larger producers diversify suppliers. I rationalize firms’ sourcing strategies in a model with matching costs and insecure supplier links. Intermediation lowers expected input costs despite brokerage fees, allowing producers to secure inputs without diversifying themselves. A 10 percent increase in global risk lowers operating profits by 3.5 percent and raises consumer prices by 0.9 percent. These losses nearly double without intermediation.