On the Detectability of Compact Multi-Planet Systems via Gravitational Microlensing

Authors: Stephen R. Kane

arXiv: 2611.05535v1 (astro-ph.EP)
Submitted to arXiv on 03 Nov. 2026
Abstract

Compact multi-planet systems orbiting ultracool dwarfs, such as TRAPPIST-1, may be a major population of terrestrial worlds with poorly constrained demographics. Individual close-in planets are expected to escape microlensing detection, but whether a compact system can produce a detectable collective signal remains to be quantified. We calculate the microlensing signal from each TRAPPIST-1 planet, and of all seven combined, if the system were a lens toward the bulge. For a 0.09 $M_\odot$ lens at 4 kpc, $R_E \approx 1.21$ AU, placing the planets at $s = 0.010$--$0.051~θ_E$, 12--63 times interior to the lensing zone. We measure each signal as the residual after fitting a single-lens model, which accounts for the barycentric dipole. Because the quadrupole term cancels between the two images to first order, the residual scales as the octupole ($q s^3$), reaching $|δA / A| \sim 10^{-6}$. The seven planets combined yield $Δχ^2 \sim 10^{-3}$ even at 1~mmag precision, five orders of magnitude below the standard detection threshold. Detection requires increasing all planet masses by a factor of $\sim$300, whereas the resonant chain loses its guarantee of Hill stability at a factor of $\sim$7. Only a lens within $\sim$15 pc of the source or the Sun places the outer planets in the lensing zone. The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is therefore not expected to detect a TRAPPIST-1-like system through microlensing, whereas its transit channel in the same fields can detect such planets in large numbers, marking a sharp boundary in the Galactic census between microlensing and transit sensitivity.

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