Cleaner air strengthens the Pacific trade winds without a detectable change in El Nino
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arXiv: 2610.31236v1 · Summary page
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Cleaner air, stronger Pacific trade winds
Reducing air pollution could alter tropical Pacific circulation without producing a detectable change in El Niño’s strength. In experiments with 12 Earth system models, cuts to aerosol and ozone-precursor emissions strengthened the Pacific trade winds, offsetting between half and two thirds of the weakening projected without air-quality controls. The response became detectable only after 2040 and disappeared when sea-surface temperatures were prescribed rather than allowed to respond. The authors link it to the Indian Ocean warming relative to the Pacific.
Yet a shift in average conditions did not translate into a clearly detectable change in the amplitude of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The simulated change was less than a tenth of its existing amplitude—the smallest change the ensemble could detect. That is not evidence that every aspect of El Niño remains unchanged: its regional impacts still shift as the background climate changes. Alongside the deep-learning study, this preprint underlines the importance of distinguishing long-term conditions, natural fluctuations and their consequences.
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