Who Gains When the Umpire Is a Machine? Evidence from the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS)
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arXiv: 2610.27576v1 · Summary page
Why cover this story this week?
An automated umpire changes who benefits
South Korea’s top baseball league replaced human ball-strike judgments with an automated system in 2024. Using more than a million pitches from 2021 to 2026, researchers distinguish the removal of human discretion from the introduction of a differently shaped strike zone. Automation eliminated count-dependent calls, the benefit catchers gained by presenting pitches favorably, and a small advantage enjoyed by star batters. Those advantages had been worth only a few runs per player-season.
The new zone also redistributed strikes toward tall batters and across matchups. Yet relatively few pitches were exposed to these changes, and estimated effects on plate-appearance outcomes were close to zero. Pitchers adjusted quickly by throwing higher; the researchers found no evidence that batters adjusted. Beyond baseball, the preprint illustrates why replacing judgment with a rule is not simply a matter of removing bias: the rule’s design, who encounters it and how people adapt all determine its consequences.
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