This paper by Qing-Bin Lu aims to shed light on the global warming pause that occurred between 2000 and 2015, as well as the subsequent rise in global mean surface temperature (GMST) in recent years. The study presents a statistical analysis of observed time-series datasets of various climate indicators, including global lower stratospheric temperature (GLST), troposphere-stratosphere temperature climatology, global land surface air temperature, GMST, sea ice extent (SIE), and snow cover extent (SCE). These observations are combined with modeled calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs to better understand the mechanisms behind these changes. The results show that GLST/SCE has stabilized since the mid-1990s with no significant change over the past two and a half decades. Upper stratospheric warming at high latitudes has been observed and GMST or global land surface air temperature has reached a plateau since the mid-2000s after removing natural effects. However, continued drastic warmings at the coasts of polar regions (particularly Russia and Alaska) have been observed which can be explained by the sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism. The calculated GMSTs by the parameter-free quantum-physics warming model of halogenated greenhouse gases (GHGs) show excellent agreement with observed GMSTs after removing natural El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic effects. This finding provides strong evidence for anthropogenic halogenated GHGs being responsible for dominant warming mechanisms. The study also calls for closer scrutiny of assumptions made in current climate models. The author acknowledges that this research is limited by its reliance on observational data rather than experiments or simulations. Nonetheless, it highlights how halogenated GHGs have contributed significantly to global surface temperature change over recent decades. This work was supported by Canada's Natural Science and Engineering Research Council Discovery grant # RGPIN-2017-05040, and the author declares no conflict of interest.
The paper talks about why the Earth's temperature stopped increasing for a while and then started going up again. Scientists looked at different measurements to see what was happening, like how hot the air is, how much ice there is, and how warm the oceans are. They found that some parts of the Earth have stayed about the same temperature for a long time, but other places near the North and South poles are getting warmer really fast because of melting ice. They also used a special model to show that pollution from humans is causing most of this warming.
Definitions
- Global warming pause: A period of time when the Earth's temperature did not increase as much as it had before.
- Global mean surface temperature (GMST): The average temperature of the Earth's surface.
- Time-series datasets: A collection of data over a period of time.
- GLST: Global Land Surface Temperature
- Troposphere-stratosphere temperature climatology: Measurements of temperatures in different layers of the atmosphere.
- SIE: Sea Ice Extent
- SCE: Snow Cover Extent
- Upper stratospheric warming: An increase in temperature high up in the atmosphere.
- Natural effects: Changes in climate caused by natural factors like volcanoes or El Nino events.
- Anthropogenic halogenated GHGs: Pollution from humans that contains certain gases which trap heat and cause global warming.
- Climate models: Computer programs that simulate how climate works based on different assumptions and inputs.
Understanding the Global Warming Pause and Subsequent Rise in Global Mean Surface Temperature
In recent years, global mean surface temperature (GMST) has been on the rise after a period of pause between 2000 and 2015. To better understand this phenomenon, Qing-Bin Lu from the University of Waterloo conducted a statistical analysis of various climate indicators such as global lower stratospheric temperature (GLST), troposphere-stratosphere temperature climatology, global land surface air temperature, GMST, sea ice extent (SIE), and snow cover extent (SCE). The research was supported by Canada's Natural Science and Engineering Research Council Discovery grant # RGPIN-2017-05040.
Observations
The study found that GLST/SCE has stabilized since the mid-1990s with no significant change over the past two and a half decades. Upper stratospheric warming at high latitudes has also been observed while GMST or global land surface air temperature has reached a plateau since the mid-2000s after removing natural effects. However, continued drastic warmings at the coasts of polar regions (particularly Russia and Alaska) have been observed which can be explained by the sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism.
Modeling Calculations
Lu then combined these observations with modeled calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs to further investigate potential mechanisms behind these changes. The calculated GMSTs by his parameter-free quantum physics warming model of halogenated greenhouse gases (GHGs) showed excellent agreement with observed GMSTs after removing natural El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic effects. This finding provides strong evidence for anthropogenic halogenated GHGs being responsible for dominant warming mechanisms over recent decades.
Limitations & Future Work
The author acknowledges that this research is limited by its reliance on observational data rather than experiments or simulations. Nonetheless, it highlights how halogenated GHGs have contributed significantly to global surface temperature change over recent decades and calls for closer scrutiny of assumptions made in current climate models going forward. The author declares no conflict of interest in relation to this work.
This paper aims to better understand why there was a global warming pause in 2000-2015 and why the global mean surface temperature (GMST) has risen again in recent years. We present and statistically analyze substantial time-series observed datasets of global lower stratospheric temperature (GLST), troposphere-stratosphere temperature climatology, global land surface air temperature, GMST, sea ice extent (SIE) and snow cover extent (SCE), combined with modeled calculations of GLSTs and GMSTs. The observed and analyzed results show that GLST/SCE has stabilized since the mid-1990s with no significant change over the past two and a half decades. Upper stratospheric warming at high latitudes has been observed and GMST or global land surface air temperature has reached a plateau since the mid-2000s with the removal of natural effects. In marked contrast, continued drastic warmings at the coasts of polar regions (particularly Russia and Alaska) are observed and well explained by the sea-ice-loss warming amplification mechanism. The calculated GMSTs by the parameter-free quantum-physics warming model of halogenated greenhouse gases (GHGs) show excellent agreement with the observed GMSTs after the natural El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and volcanic effects are removed. These results have provided strong evidence for the dominant warming mechanism of anthropogenic halogenated GHGs. The results also call for closer scrutiny of the assumptions made in current climate models.
