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The Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules: A Combined Signal Approach

Camillo Lento (Lakehead University), Nikola Gradojević (Lakehead University)

Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR)
DOI: 10.19030/jabr.v23i1.1405 (Economics, Econometrics and Finance)
License: not stated (all rights reserved)

Abstract: The focus of this paper is to determine the profitability of technical trading rules by evaluating their ability to outperform the naïve buy-and-hold trading strategy. Moving average cross-over rules, filter rules, Bollinger Bands, and trading range break-out rules are tested on the S&P/TSX 300 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, NASDAQ Composite Index, and the Canada/U.S. spot exchange rate. After accounting for transaction costs, excess returns are generated by the moving average cross-over rules and trading range break-out rules for the S&P/TSX 300 Index, NASDAQ Composite Index and the Canada/U.S. spot exchange rate. Filter rules also earn excess returns when applied on the Canada/U.S. spot exchange rate. The bootstrap methodology is used to determine the statistical significance of the results. The profitability of the technical trading rules is further enhanced with a combined signal approach.

Published on 16 Jan. 2011