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Large-scale Causal Approaches to Debiasing Post-click Conversion Rate Estimation with Multi-task Learning
Wenhao Zhang (University of California, Los Angeles), Wentian Bao (Alibaba Group (China)), Xiao-Yang Liu (Columbia University), Keping Yang (Alibaba Group (China)), Quan Lin (Alibaba Group (China)), Hong Wen (Alibaba Group (China)), Ramin Ramezani (University of California, Los Angeles)
Abstract: Post-click conversion rate (CVR) estimation is a critical task in e-commerce recommender systems. This task is deemed quite challenging under industrial setting with two major issues: 1) selection bias caused by user self-selection, and 2) data sparsity due to the rare click events. A successful conversion typically has the following sequential events: ”exposure → click → conversion”. Conventional CVR estimators are trained in the click space, but inference is done in the entire exposure space. They fail to account for the causes of the missing data and treat them as missing at random. Hence, their estimations are highly likely to deviate from the real values by large. In addition, the data sparsity issue can also handicap many industrial CVR estimators which usually have large parameter spaces.