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The Future of Survey Sampling

J. Michael Brick (Westat (United States), University of Maryland, College Park)

Public Opinion Quarterly
DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfr045 (Social Sciences)
License: not stated (all rights reserved)

Abstract: The twentieth century saw a dramatic change in the way information was generated as probability sampling replaced full enumeration.We examine some key events of the past and issues being addressed today to gain perspective on the requirements that might steer changes in the direction of survey sampling in the future.The potential for online Web panels and other methods that do not use probability sampling are considered.Finally, we conclude with some thoughts on how the future of survey sampling might be shaped by unpredictable factors.Contemplating the potential directions that survey sampling may take in the future requires considering the current state of affairs and how we arrived at this point.Despite occasional issues and controversies, it seems fair to say that survey sampling, and probability sampling in particular, has helped transform our view of society and the issues it faces.Perhaps even more importantly, sampling has changed how we think about obtaining information from a large population.We have seen the transition from full enumeration as the only acceptable method of learning about a population that was the standard in the late nineteenth century to ''partial investigations'' and finally to a full theory of sampling.Kruskal and Mosteller (1980) describe this transformation.This change has made it possible to study a wide range of topics about our society in a cost-effective and timely manner.The findings from surveys are generally accepted in popular, legal, and technical areas, although there are still debates about methods of implementation.Election surveys, both those in the run-up to the election and exit polls, demonstrate both the general acceptance and concerns about methods.Election surveys are very public and their accuracy is easily judged; the results of these surveys are highly reported and the

Published on 01 Dec. 2011