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Nipah virus dynamics in bats and implications for spillover to humans
Jonathan H. Epstein (EcoHealth Alliance), Simon J. Anthony (Columbia University), Ariful Islam (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, EcoHealth Alliance), Auston Marm Kilpatrick (University of California, Santa Cruz), Shahneaz Ali Khan (Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, EcoHealth Alliance), Maria Balkey (Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, United States Food and Drug Administration), Noam Ross (EcoHealth Alliance), Ina Smith (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness), Carlos Zambrana‐Torrelio (EcoHealth Alliance), Yun Tao (EcoHealth Alliance), Ausraful Islam (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, EcoHealth Alliance), P. Lan Quan (Columbia University), Kevin J. Olival (EcoHealth Alliance), Salah Uddin Khan (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research), Emily S. Gurley (Johns Hopkins University, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research), M. Jahangir Hossein (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, MRC Unit the Gambia), Hume Ernest Field (EcoHealth Alliance), Mark D. Fielder (Kingston University London), Thomas Briese (Columbia University), Mahmudur Rahman (Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research), Christopher C. Broder (Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences), Gary S. Crameri (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness), Lin‐Fa Wang (National University of Singapore, Duke-NUS Medical School), Stephen P. Luby (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Stanford University), Walter Ian Lipkin (Columbia University), Peter Daszak (EcoHealth Alliance)
Abstract: Significance Nipah virus (NiV) is a zoonotic virus and World Health Organization (WHO) priority pathogen that causes near-annual outbreaks in Bangladesh and India with >75% mortality. This work advances our understanding of transmission of NiV in its natural bat reservoir by analyzing data from a 6-y multidisciplinary study of serology, viral phylogenetics, bat ecology, and immunology. We show that outbreaks in Pteropus bats are driven by increased population density, loss of immunity over time, and viral recrudescence, resulting in multiyear interepizootic periods. Incidence is low, but bats carry NiV across Bangladesh and can shed virus at any time of year, highlighting the importance of routes of transmission to the timing and location of human NiV outbreaks.