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Agreements Have a Clock: Compute Growth and the Verification of AI Restraint

Li Gan

Abstract: Rival powers have agreed to limit nuclear arms, phase out ozone-depleting chemicals, and cut greenhouse gases, though each agreement was hard to reach. This paper asks what an agreement to pause frontier AI needs. A follower advances through own research and diffusion from the leader. Because diffusion fades as the gap closes, a paused leader stays ahead longer than its raw lead suggests. A solved agreement game adds voluntary entry, costly monitoring, secret advances, and credible responses. Cooperation is supportable when the monitoring needed to deter a breakout costs no more than either country gains from cooperating. As compute grows during a pause, a secret advance reaches the frozen frontier sooner, shrinking the response window: agreements have a clock. In an example with a fixed leader window, cooperation is supportable through month 18.9. Verified matched safety research extends this to month 25.5, and halving the monitoring cost to month 31.8.

Submitted to arXiv on 03 Nov. 2026