GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models

The potential implications of Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) models and related technologies on the U.S. labor market have been investigated in a recent study. The study focuses not only on the progress of these models but also on the breadth, scale, and capabilities of complementary technologies developed around them. To contextualize this progression and complement labor impact forecasts of technology, a new rubric for understanding Language Model Models (LLMs) capabilities and their potential effects on jobs has been proposed. This rubric measures the overall exposure of tasks to GPTs by using human annotators and GPT-4 itself as classifiers to apply it to occupational data primarily sourced from the O*NET database. Approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs, while around 19% may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. The influence spans all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure. Notably, the impact is not limited to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Exposure analysis by industry shows information processing industries having high exposure rates compared to other industries indicating that GPTs are indeed general-purpose technologies with far-reaching impacts beyond specific sectors or industries. The study concludes that Generative Pre-trained Transformers exhibit characteristics of general-purpose technologies (GPTs), suggesting that as these models could have notable economic, social, and policy implications. In practice, access to image capabilities is categorized separately to facilitate annotation though they are combined for all analyses in order to ensure quality annotations were obtained both human ratings and GPT-4 ratings were collected using a similar rubric applied to O*NET Detailed Worker Activity (DWA) and task data pairs respectively.

The Potential Implications of Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) Models on the U.S. Labor Market

Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs) are a type of artificial intelligence technology that has been gaining traction in recent years. GPTs have the potential to revolutionize many aspects of our lives, including the labor market in the United States. A recent study investigated this potential and its implications for jobs.

What is a GPT?

A GPT is an AI model that uses deep learning techniques to generate natural language text from input data. The model is pre-trained on large datasets and can then be used to generate new text based on what it has learned from those datasets. This makes them very powerful tools for generating content such as articles, blog posts, or even entire books.

How Does It Affect Jobs?

The study found that approximately 80% of the US workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs, while around 19% may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted.