Times Series Forecasting for Urban Building Energy Consumption Based on Graph Convolutional Network
Authors: Yuqing Hu, Xiaoyuan Cheng, Suhang Wang, Jianli Chen, Tianxiang Zhao, Enyan Dai
AI-generated Key Points
- The building industry accounts for over 40% of energy consumption in the United States
- Many cities are implementing ambitious energy-saving strategies by retrofitting existing buildings and constructing new sustainable communities
- Current urban building energy models have limitations in capturing inter-building interdependency due to their dynamic and non-linear characteristics
- A team of researchers proposed a novel data-driven UBEM that synthesizes solar-based building interdependency and spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) algorithm
- The feasibility of the proposed model was tested by comparing its performance with other common time-series machine learning models, and the ST-GCN model outperformed all others
- The physical knowledge embedded in the model was well interpreted, highlighting how data-driven models integrated with engineering or physical knowledge can significantly improve urban building energy simulation.
- This study provides valuable insights into developing accurate UBEMs that can support designing energy-efficient communities for sustainable urban development.
Abstract: The world is increasingly urbanizing and the building industry accounts for more than 40% of energy consumption in the United States. To improve urban sustainability, many cities adopt ambitious energy-saving strategies through retrofitting existing buildings and constructing new communities. In this situation, an accurate urban building energy model (UBEM) is the foundation to support the design of energy-efficient communities. However, current UBEM are limited in their abilities to capture the inter-building interdependency due to their dynamic and non-linear characteristics. Those models either ignored or oversimplified these building interdependencies, which can substantially affect the accuracy of urban energy modeling. To fill the research gap, this study proposes a novel data-driven UBEM synthesizing the solar-based building interdependency and spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (ST-GCN) algorithm. Especially, we took a university campus located in downtown Atlanta as an example to predict the hourly energy consumption. Furthermore, we tested the feasibility of the proposed model by comparing the performance of the ST-GCN model with other common time-series machine learning models. The results indicate that the ST-GCN model overall outperforms all others. In addition, the physical knowledge embedded in the model is well interpreted. After discussion, it is found that data-driven models integrated engineering or physical knowledge can significantly improve the urban building energy simulation.
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