Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

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1. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Modeling Macroeconomic Variations After COVID-19

   Serena Ng · 2021 · Econometrics · preprint, non relu par les pairs · cité 79 fois · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   The coronavirus is a global event of historical proportions and just a few months changed the time series properties of the data in ways that make many pre-covid forecasting models inadequate. It also creates a new problem for estimation of economic factors and dynamic causal effects because the variations around the outbreak can be interpreted as outliers, as shifts to the distribution of existing shocks, or as addition of new shocks. I take the latter view and use covid indicators as controls to 'de-covid' the data prior to estimation. I find that economic uncertainty remains high at the end of 2020 even though real economic activity has recovered and covid uncertainty has receded. Dynamic…

2. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   On Bayesian Filtering for Markov Regime Switching Models

   Nigar Hashimzade, Oleg Kirsanov, Tatiana Kirsanova et al. · 2024 · Econometrics · cité 1 fois · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   This paper presents a framework for empirical analysis of dynamic macroeconomic models using Bayesian filtering, with a specific focus on the state-space formulation of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models with multiple regimes. We outline the theoretical foundations of model estimation, provide the details of two families of powerful multiple-regime filters, IMM and GPB, and construct corresponding multiple-regime smoothers. A simulation exercise, based on a prototypical New Keynesian DSGE model, is used to demonstrate the computational robustness of the proposed filters and smoothers and evaluate their accuracy and speed for a selection of filters from each family. We show …

3. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Why Economic Theories and Policies Fail? Unnoticed Variables and Overlooked Economics

   Victor Olkhov · 2022 · General Economics · cité 1 fois · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   Accuracy of economic theories and efficiency of economic policy strictly depend on the choice of the economic variables and processes mostly liable for description of economic reality. That states the general problem of assessment of any possible economic variables and processes chargeable for economic evolution. We show that economic variables and processes described by current economic theories constitute only a negligible fraction of factors responsible for economic dynamics. We consider numerous unnoted economic variables and overlooked economic processes those determine the states and predictions of the real economics. We regard collective economic variables, collective transactions and…

4. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Threadneedle: An Experimental Tool for the Simulation and Analysis of Fractional Reserve Banking Systems

   Jacky Mallett · 2015 · General Finance · preprint, non relu par les pairs · cité 1 fois · Pas encore résumé

   Résumé scientifique

   Threadneedle is a multi-agent simulation framework, based on a full double entry book keeping implementation of the banking system's fundamental transactions. It is designed to serve as an experimental test bed for economic simulations that can explore the banking system's influence on the macro-economy under varying assumptions for its regulatory framework, mix of financial instruments, and activities of borrowers and lenders. Support is provided for Basel Capital and central bank reserve regulatory frameworks, inter-bank lending and correct handling of loan defaults within the bank accounting framework. In this paper we provide an overview of the design of Threadneedle, and the rational fo…

5. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Teaching Economics and Providing Visual "Big Pictures"

   Seyyed Ali Zeytoon Nejad Moosavian · 2016 · Economics · cité 14 fois · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   The goal of this paper is to investigate the importance of providing visual "big pictures" in the teaching of economics. The plurality and variety of concepts, variables, diagrams, and models involved in economics can be a source of confusion for many economics students. However, reviewing the existing literature on the importance of providing visual "big pictures" in the process of learning suggests that furnishing students with a visual "big picture" that illustrates the ways through which those numerous, diverse concepts are connected to each other could be an effective solution to clear up the mentioned mental chaos. As a practical example, this paper introduces a "big picture" that can …

6. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   Decision making in Economics -- a behavioral approach

   Amitesh Saha · 2020 · General Economics · preprint, non relu par les pairs · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   We review economic research regarding the decision making processes of individuals in economics, with a particular focus on papers which tried analyzing factors that affect decision making with the evolution of the history of economic thought. The factors that are discussed here are psychological, emotional, cognitive systems, and social norms. Apart from analyzing these factors, it deals with the reasons behind the limitations of rational decision-making theory in individual decision making and the need for a behavioral theory of decision making. In this regard, it has also reviewed the role of situated learning in the decision-making process.

7. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   The Macroeconomic Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms

   Francesco Furno · 2021 · General Economics · cité 1 fois · Résumé IA disponible

   Résumé scientifique

   This paper extends a standard general equilibrium framework with a corporate tax code featuring two key elements: tax depreciation policy and the distinction between c-corporations and pass-through businesses. In the model, the stimulative effect of a tax rate cut on c-corporations is smaller when tax depreciation policy is accelerated, and is further diluted in the aggregate by the presence of pass-through entities. Because of a highly accelerated tax depreciation policy and a large share of pass-through activity in 2017, the model predicts small stimulus, large payouts to shareholders, and a dramatic loss of corporate tax revenues following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA-17). These predic…

8. Apparenté Pas pertinent

   The public debt multiplier

   Alice Albonico, Guido Ascari, Alessandro Gobbi · 2020 · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,Volume 132, November 2021, 104204 · cité 16 fois · Pas encore résumé

   Résumé scientifique

   We study the effects on economic activity of a pure temporary change in government debt and the relationship between the debt multiplier and the level of debt in an overlapping generations framework. The debt multiplier is positive but quite small during normal times while it is much larger during crises. Moreover, it increases with the steady state level of debt. Hence, the call for fiscal consolidation during recessions seems ill-advised. Finally, a rise in the steady state debt-to-GDP level increases the steady state real interest rate providing more room for manoeuvre to monetary policy to fight deflationary shocks.