Exoplanet Vision 2050

Résumé : Is there any hope for us to draw a plausible picture of the future of exoplanet research? Here we extrapolate from the first 25 years of exoplanet discovery into the year 2050. If the power law for the cumulative exoplanet count continues, then almost 100,000,000 exoplanets would be known by 2050. Although this number sounds ridiculously large, we find that the power law could plausibly continue until at least as far as 2030, when Gaia and WFIRST will have discovered on the order of 100,000 exoplanets. After an early era of radial velocity detection, we are now in the transit era, which might be followed by a transit and astrometry era dominated by the WFIRST and Gaia missions. And then? Maybe more is not better. A small and informal survey among astronomers at the "Exoplanet Vision 2050" workshop in Budapest suggests that astrobiological topics might influence the future of exoplanet research.