Résultats de recherche pour « Cryptocurrency »

Correlation networks were used to detect characteristics which, although fixed over time, have an important influence on the evolution of prices over time. Potentially important features were identified using the websites and whitepapers of cryptocurrencies with the largest userbases. These were assessed using two datasets to enhance robustness: one with fourteen cryptocurrencies beginning from 9 November 2017, and a subset with nine cryptocurrencies starting 9 September 2016, both ending 6 March 2018. Separately analysing the subset of cryptocurrencies raised the number of data points from 115 to 537, and improved robustness to changes in relationships over time. Excluding USD Tether, the results showed a positive association between different cryptocurrencies that was statistically significant. Robust, strong positive associations were observed for six cryptocurrencies where one was a fork of the other; Bitcoin / Bitcoin Cash was an exception. There was evidence for the existence of a group of cryptocurrencies particularly associated with Cardano, and a separate group correlated with Ethereum. The data was not consistent with a token's functionality or creation mechanism being the dominant determinants of the evolution of prices over time but did suggest that factors other than speculation contributed to the price.

With the exception of Bitcoin, there appears to be little or no literature on GARCH modelling of cryptocurrencies. This paper provides the first GARCH modelling of the seven most popular cryptocurrencies. Twelve GARCH models are fitted to each cryptocurrency, and their fits are assessed in terms of five criteria. Conclusions are drawn on the best fitting models, forecasts and acceptability of value at risk estimates.

Forecasting cryptocurrency prices remains a formidable challenge due to inherent non-stationarity, abrupt regime shifts, and multi-scale stochastic dependencies. Conventional deep learning models often struggle to capture complex underlying dynamics, frequently resulting in persistent phase-lagged predictions. To address these limitations, we propose MoFE, a novel deep learning framework that integrates Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) within a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture. Rooted in the theoretical framework of stochastic differential equations, MoFE conceptualizes cryptocurrency volatility as a superposition of multi-frequency components, which includes user network based fundamental growth, mining costs and halving mechanism caused seasonal volatility, and market sentiment-induced chaos. Specifically, specialized adaptive FNO (AFNO) and Convolution dual-domain experts learn continuous function-to-function mappings to encapsulate global spectral trends, cyclical adjustments and microstructures, while a dynamic gating based MoE mechanism enables adaptive strategy switching across diverse market regimes. Extensive experiments on Bitcoin datasets spanning January 2020 to December 2025 demonstrate that MoFE achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in both T+1 and T+5 forecasting horizons. Notably, the model effectively mitigates the phase-lag effect, delivering superior Directional Accuracy (DA) and Information Coefficient (IC). In high-fidelity simulated trading environments, these predictive gains transfer into significant excess returns and robust risk-adjusted performance, characterized by a high Sharpe ratio.

We model a cryptocurrency as membership in a decentralized digital platform developed to facilitate transactions between users of certain goods or services.The rigidity induced by the cryptocurrency price having to clear membership demand with supply of token by speculators, especially with strong complementarity in membership demand, can lead to market breakdown.While user optimism mitigates the market fragility by increasing user participation, speculator sentiment exacerbates it by crowding users out.Informational frictions attenuate the risk of breakdown by dampening price volatility and platform performance.Furthermore, the users' anticipation of losses from strategic attacks by miners exacerbates the market fragility.

Over the past few years, there has been a growth in activity, public knowledge, and awareness of cryptocurrencies and related blockchain technology. As the industry has grown, there has also been an increase in scams looking to steal unsuspecting individuals cryptocurrency. Many of the scams operate on visually similar but seemingly unconnected websites, advertised by malicious social media accounts, which either attempt an advance-fee scam or operate as phishing websites. This paper analyses public online and blockchain-based data to provide a deeper understanding of these cryptocurrency scams. The clustering technique DBSCAN is applied to the content of scam websites to discover a typology of advance-fee and phishing scams. It is found that the same entities are running multiple instances of similar scams, revealed by their online infrastructure and blockchain activity. The entities also manufacture public blockchain activity to create the appearance that their scams are genuine. Through source and destination of funds analysis, it is observed that victims usually send funds from fiat-accepting exchanges. The entities running these scams cash-out or launder their proceeds using a variety of avenues including exchanges, gambling sites, and mixers.

We have developed and made available a new Cryptocurrency Uncertainty Index (UCRY) based on news coverage. Our UCRY Index captures two types of uncertainty: that of the price of cryptocurrency (UCRY Price) and uncertainty of cryptocurrency policy (UCRY Policy). We show that the constructed index exhibits distinct movements around major events in cryptocurrency space. We suggest that this index captures uncertainty beyond Bitcoin, and can be used for academic, policy, and practice-driven research.

Collective dynamics in financial markets can emerge through synchronized movements of large groups of assets. Motivated by analogies with interacting many-body systems, we introduce a spin-lattice representation for analyzing collective states in cryptocurrency markets. In this framework, assets are encoded as binary spin variables according to the sign of their returns, while correlations between assets determine effective interaction strengths. A correlation-based breadth-first search (CBFS) procedure embeds 169 cryptocurrencies into a $13 \times 13$ lattice, enabling the construction of an Ising-like Hamiltonian describing the market configuration, which we call the \emph{Market Crystal}. Macroscopic observables such as magnetization and energy provide a statistical-mechanical characterization of collective market states. The resulting phase-space structure highlights regimes of strong alignment and fragmentation among assets, with an energy--magnetization pattern suggestive of predominantly ferromagnetic interactions. This framework offers a statistical-mechanical viewpoint for studying collective behavior in financial systems.

Retrieving a set of 143 cryptocurrencies for a sample spanning 2014–2018, we investigate the popular momentum strategy implemented in the cryptocurrency market. Contrary to earlier studies our findings do not indicate any evidence of significant momentum payoffs, supporting the view that the cryptocurrency market is far more efficient than suggested in earlier studies.

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity and credibility, marketplaces for cryptocurrencies are growing in importance. Understanding the dynamics of these markets can help to assess how viable the cryptocurrnency ecosystem is and how design choices affect market behavior. One existential threat to cryptocurrencies is dramatic fluctuations in traders' willingness to buy or sell. Using a novel experimental methodology, we conducted an online experiment to study how susceptible traders in these markets are to peer influence from trading behavior. We created bots that executed over one hundred thousand trades costing less than a penny each in 217 cryptocurrencies over the course of six months. We find that individual "buy" actions led to short-term increases in subsequent buy-side activity hundreds of times the size of our interventions. From a design perspective, we note that the design choices of the exchange we study may have promoted this and other peer influence effects, which highlights the potential social and economic impact of HCI in the design of digital institutions.