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Crisis Management in the New Ecology of Uncertainty: An International Relations Perspective
João Bilhim
Résumé : Crisis management has become a core strategic capability in an era characterized by systemic volatility, intensifying geopolitical rivalry, accelerating technological disruption, and deepening global interdependence. The contemporary ecology of uncertainty – shaped by escalating geopolitical tensions, recurrent climate-induced disasters, digitally amplified sociocultural fragmentation, and the erosion of institutional trust – poses profound challenges to established models of governance and leadership at both domestic and international levels. This chapter offers a critical examination of the conceptual evolution of crisis management by integrating foundational typologies, theoretical frameworks, and seminal contributions from crisis decision-making theory, resilience governance, complex adaptive systems, and international crisis diplomacy. It situates crisis management firmly within the field of International Relations, demonstrating how crises increasingly transcend territorial boundaries and require coordinated, multi-actor responses involving states, international organizations, and transnational networks. Grounded primarily in International Relations theories – while integrating insights from political science, organizational sociology, communication studies, and public management – the chapter offers a comprehensive analysis of emerging vulnerabilities and the capabilities required to manage disruptive events within multilevel governance systems. It concludes by advancing a set of strategic recommendations tailored to diplomatic higher education institutions, emphasizing their essential responsibility in preparing future diplomats and practitioners of international security and global crisis governance to operate effectively within an environment marked by permanent uncertainty and increasingly complex global governance architectures.