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Improving the Reliability of Large Language Models: A Hypothesis-Driven Statistical Evaluation of Hallucination Detection and Mitigation Techniques

Mihir S. Bhogal (Shri Ramswaroop Memorial College of Engineering and Management), Jigyasa Gupta (Shri Ramswaroop Memorial College of Engineering and Management), Aayush Pratap Singh (Shri Ramswaroop Memorial College of Engineering and Management), Nitish Kumar Maurya (Shri Ramswaroop Memorial College of Engineering and Management)

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24110350 (Computer Science)
Licence : CC BY

Résumé : Large Language Models (LLMs) such as GPT-4, LLaMA, and Claude achieve remarkable fluency, yet their tendency to hallucinate — producing plausible but factually incorrect content — remains a central obstacle to reliable deployment in high-stakes domains. This paper organizes a comparative evaluation of six hallucination detection techniques (SelfCheckGPT, FActScore, Chain-of-Verification, internal-state probing, semantic entropy, and Retrieval-Augmented Generation) and six mitigation techniques around two falsifiable statistical hypotheses: that mean detection accuracy (AUROC) differs across technique families (H1), and that mean mitigation effectiveness differs across technique families (H2). A pilot dataset (n=12 per technique) built from benchmark-aggregated literature values was analyzed using one-way ANOVA, Levene's test, Shapiro–Wilk normality testing, Tukey's HSD post-hoc test, and eta-squared effect size. Both omnibus ANOVAs were significant (detection: F(5,66)=43.99, p<0.001, η²=0.77; mitigation: F(5,66)=55.24, p<0.001, η²=0.81), rejecting both nulls. Tukey HSD resolved detection into three statistically distinct tiers led by RAG Grounding Consistency and Semantic Entropy, and resolved mitigation into a tiered structure led by RAG alone. These results motivate a modular ensemble pipeline combining lightweight detection, retrieval grounding, and selective verification as the most defensible path toward reliable LLM systems.

Publié le 10 Nov. 2026