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Reformulating the bromine alpha factor and equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC): evolution of ozone destruction rates of bromine and chlorine in future climate scenarios
J. Eric Wilmouth Klobas (Harvard University), Debra K. Weisenstein (Harvard University), Ross J. Salawitch (Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park), David M. Wilmouth (Harvard University)
Résumé : Abstract. Future trajectories of the stratospheric trace gas background will alter the rates of bromine- and chlorine-mediated catalytic ozone destruction via changes in the partitioning of inorganic halogen reservoirs and the underlying temperature structure of the stratosphere. The current formulation of the bromine alpha factor, the ozone-destroying power of stratospheric bromine atoms relative to stratospheric chlorine atoms, is invariant with climate state. Here, we refactor the bromine alpha factor, introducing climate normalization to a benchmark climate state, and reformulate Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) to reflect changes in the rates of both chlorine- and bromine-mediated ozone loss catalysis with time. We show that the ozone-processing power of the extrapolar stratosphere is significantly perturbed by future climate assumptions. Furthermore, we show that our EESC-based estimate of the extrapolar ozone-recovery date is in closer agreement with extrapolar ozone recovery dates predicted using more sophisticated 3-D chemistry-climate models than prior formulations of EESC that employ climate-invariant values of the bromine alpha factor.