Exécution de notre outil de synthèse sur un nouvel article

Résumé : This study investigates the long-run impacts of climate change, environmental policy stringency (EPS), and agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP) on food production across selected emerging economies over the period 1990–2022. Second-generation econometric methods, robust to cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, are employed to ensure methodological rigor. Using the Cross-Sectionally Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag model alongside panel cointegration tests, the study establishes long-term relationships among the variables of interest. The results reveal that a 1% increase in average annual precipitation (APRE), ATFP, and EPS is associated with long-term increases in food production of 0.15, 0.93, and 0.04%, respectively. In contrast, a 1% rise in average annual temperature (ATP) is found to reduce food production by 0.98% in the long term. Moderation analysis further demonstrates that ATFP significantly moderates the relationship between both APRE and ATP and food production in both the long and short term. EPS, however, exerts a significant moderating effect exclusively on the ATP-food production nexus in the short term. The robustness of the baseline estimates is confirmed through alternative estimation strategies, including Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, as well as the incorporation of alternative control variables. Based on these findings, the study offers actionable policy recommendations for selected emerging economies, emphasizing the enhancement of ATFP and the implementation of stringent environmental regulatory frameworks as critical pathways to ensuring food security in the face of accelerating climate change.