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Corporate Debt Maturity and the Real Effects of the 2007 Credit Crisis
Heitor Almeida (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign), Murillo Campello A (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign), Bruno Laranjeira (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign), Scott J. Weisbenner
Résumé : We use the 2007 credit crisis to assess the effect of financial contracting on real corporate behavior.We identify heterogeneity in financial contracting at the onset of the crisis by exploring ex-ante variation in long-term debt maturity.Our empirical methodology uses an experiment-like design in which we control for observed and unobserved firm heterogeneity via a differences-in-differences matching estimator.We study whether firms with large portions of their long-term debt maturing right at the time of the crisis observe more pronounced outcomes than otherwise similar firms that need not refinance their debt during the crisis.Firms whose long-term debt was largely maturing right after the third quarter of 2007 reduced investment by 2.5% more (on a quarterly basis) than otherwise similar firms whose debt was scheduled to mature well after 2008.This relative decline in investment is statistically significant and economically large, representing approximately one-third of pre-crisis investment levels.A number of falsification and placebo tests confirm our inferences about the effect of credit supply shocks on corporate policies.For example, in the absence of a credit shock ("normal times"), the maturity composition of long-term debt has no effect on investment outcomes.Likewise, maturity composition has no impact on investment when long-term debt is not a major source of funding for the firm.