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Net buying pressure and the information in bitcoin option trades
Carol Alexander (University of Sussex, Peking University), Jun Deng (University of International Business and Economics), Jianfen Feng (University of International Business and Economics), Huning Wan (University of International Business and Economics)
Résumé : Bitcoin prices are driven by upward as well as downward jumps and so the bitcoin implied volatility surface behaves differently from those of established options markets. We analyze tick-level Deribit option price data, demonstrating increasing support for the limits-to-arbitrage hypothesis. Hence market makers are managing order imbalance and inventory more effectively as Deribit bitcoin options trading volumes increases. On the demand side, volatility traders drive both at-the-money and out-of-the-money option prices, the latter also being driven by directional traders. Directional effects were most pronounced during the price bubble of 2021. Further refinements of our tests assess time-to-maturity and time-of-day effects.