The Russian invasion of Ukraine selectively depolarized the Finnish NATO discussion

Abstract: It is often thought, yet rarely observed, that an external threat increases the internal cohesion of a nation, and thus decreases polarization. We examine this proposition by analyzing NATO discussion dynamics on Finnish social media following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In Finland, public opinion on NATO had long been polarized along the left-right partisan axis, but the invasion led to a rapid convergence of the opinion, and eventually led the country to apply for NATO membership. We investigate how this depolarization took place among polarized actors on Finnish Twitter. By analyzing retweeting patterns, we find three separated user groups before the invasion: a pro-NATO, a left-wing anti-NATO, and a conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group. After the invasion, the left-wing anti-NATO group members broke out of their retweeting bubble and connected with the pro-NATO group despite their difference in partisanship, while the conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group mostly remained a separate cluster. Our content analysis reveals that the left-wing anti-NATO group and the pro-NATO group were likely bridged by a shared condemnation of Russia's actions and shared democratic norms. Meanwhile the other anti-NATO group, mainly built around conspiracy theories and disinformation, consistently demonstrated a clear anti-NATO attitude and retained strong within-group cohesion. Our findings show that an external threat can bridge partisan divides in issues linked to the threat, while groups upheld by conspiracy theories and disinformation may persist even under dramatic external threats.