Examining the drivers of business cycle divergence between Euro Area and Romania

Résumé : This research aims to provide an explanatory analyses of the business cycles divergence between Euro Area and Romania, respectively its drivers, since the synchronisation of output-gaps is one of the most important topic in the context of a potential EMU accession. According to the estimates, output-gaps synchronisation entered on a downward path in the subperiod 2010-2017, compared to 2002-2009. The paper demonstrates there is a negative relationship between business cycles divergence and three factors (economic structure convergence, wage structure convergence and economic openness), but also a positive relationship between it and its autoregressive term, respectively the GDP per capita convergence.