Population dynamics in the global coral symbiont network under temperature variations

Abstract: Coral reefs are crucial to marine biodiversity and rely on a delicate symbiotic relationship between corals and zooxanthellae algae. Water temperature variations, however, disrupt this association, leading to coral bleaching events that severely affect marine ecosystems. This study presents a mathematical model for the population dynamics of coral and symbiont species considering the coral symbiont network and recurrent warming events. The model incorporates thermal tolerances of species and coupled growth dynamics (between corals and symbionts) to investigate how network structure and thermal tolerance influence the species' growth. Using real data from different ocean regions, results reveal that network connectivity plays a significant role in population growth after successive warming events, with generalist species demonstrating greater growth across all regions analyzed. The comparatively higher correlation between node degree and final population also emphasizes the impact of ecological network structure on species growth, offering valuable insights into coral reef population dynamics under climate change. This research highlights the need to consider network structure beyond species' thermal tolerances when evaluating the ecological responses of corals to environmental changes.