# From old wars to new wars and global terrorism

**Authors:** N. Johnson, M. Spagat, J. Restrepo, J. Bohorquez, N. Suarez, E. Restrepo, R. Zarama  
**arXiv:** [physics/0506213](https://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0506213)  
**Date:** 2005-06-29  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/physics--0506213v1/

## Key points

- The article explores the changing nature of warfare in the modern world
- 9/11 attacks created an urgent need to understand contemporary conflicts and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars
- Two ongoing, high-profile wars on opposite sides of the globe - Colombia and Iraq - were examined using unique dataset for killings and injuries in Colombia, plus publicly available data for civilians killed in Iraq
- Strong evidence for power-law behavior within each war was found
- Modern insurgencies are characterized by dispersed networks rather than centralized command structures, making them more difficult to defeat through traditional military means
- Insurgency warfare has become more similar to terrorism over time
- The study provides important insights into the changing nature of warfare in the modern world
- New approaches to conflict resolution that take into account these evolving dynamics are needed.

## Summary

The article "From old wars to new wars and global terrorism" explores the changing nature of warfare in the modern world. Even before the 9/11 attacks, there were claims that war had fundamentally changed, and this event created an urgent need to understand contemporary conflicts and their relationship to older conventional and terrorist wars. The authors examine two ongoing, high-profile wars on opposite sides of the globe - Colombia and Iraq - using their own unique dataset for killings and injuries in Colombia, plus publicly available data for civilians killed in Iraq. The study shows strong evidence for power-law behavior within each war. The frequency-intensity distribution of fatalities in "old wars," from 1816-1980, is a power-law with exponent 1.80. Global terrorist attacks from 1968-present also follow a power-law with exponent 1.71 for G7 countries and 2.5 for non-G7 countries. Despite substantial differences in contexts and data coverage, the power-law coefficients for both Colombia and Iraq are tending toward 2.5, which is a value characteristic of non-G7 terrorism as opposed to old wars. The authors propose a plausible yet analytically solvable model of modern insurgent warfare that can explain these observations. They argue that modern insurgencies are characterized by dispersed networks rather than centralized command structures, making them more difficult to defeat through traditional military means. This model suggests that insurgency warfare has become more similar to terrorism over time. Overall, this study provides important insights into the changing nature of warfare in the modern world and highlights the need for new approaches to conflict resolution that take into account these evolving dynamics.