# The Russian invasion of Ukraine selectively depolarized the Finnish NATO discussion

**Authors:** Yan Xia, Antti Gronow, Arttu Malkamäki, Tuomas Ylä-Anttila, Barbara Keller, Mikko Kivelä  
**arXiv:** [2212.07861](https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.07861)  
**Date:** 2022-12-15  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/2212.07861v2/

## Key points

- Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 impacted polarization of public opinion regarding NATO membership in Finland
- Prior to invasion, Finnish social media discussions on NATO were polarized along left-right partisan lines with three distinct user groups identified: pro-NATO, left-wing anti-NATO, and conspiracy-charged anti-NATO
- Following the invasion, there was a rapid convergence of opinion among these groups leading to depolarization and eventually resulting in Finland applying for NATO membership
- Left-wing anti-NATO group members broke out of their retweeting bubble and connected with the pro-NATO group despite their difference in partisanship
- Conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group mostly remained a separate cluster
- Content analysis revealed that left-wing anti-NATO group and pro-NATO group were likely bridged by shared condemnation of Russia's actions and shared democratic norms
- External threat can bridge partisan divides in issues linked to the threat
- Groups upheld by conspiracy theories and disinformation may persist even under dramatic external threats
- Depolarization can occur when there is a shared understanding of democratic values and a common enemy threatening those values
- Findings have important implications for policymakers seeking to address polarization within their societies

## Summary

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 had a significant impact on the polarization of public opinion regarding NATO membership in Finland. Prior to the invasion, Finnish social media discussions on NATO were polarized along left-right partisan lines, with three distinct user groups identified: pro-NATO, left-wing anti-NATO, and conspiracy-charged anti-NATO. However, following the invasion there was a rapid convergence of opinion among these groups leading to depolarization and eventually resulting in Finland applying for NATO membership. Through an analysis of retweeting patterns on Finnish Twitter it was found that the left-wing anti-NATO group members broke out of their retweeting bubble and connected with the pro-NATO group despite their difference in partisanship. However, the conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group mostly remained a separate cluster. Content analysis revealed that the left-wing anti-NATO group and the pro-NATO group were likely bridged by a shared condemnation of Russia's actions and shared democratic norms. This study provides evidence that an external threat can bridge partisan divides in issues linked to the threat. However, groups upheld by conspiracy theories and disinformation may persist even under dramatic external threats. The findings suggest that depolarization can occur when there is a shared understanding of democratic values and a common enemy threatening those values. This has important implications for policymakers seeking to address polarization within their societies.