# Three Laws of Technology Rise or Fall

**Authors:** Jianfeng Zhan  
**arXiv:** [2204.03241](https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.03241)  
**Date:** 2022-04-07  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/2204.03241v1/

## Key points

- Law of technology inertia: Once a technology gains momentum, it is likely to continue its growth trajectory unless acted upon by an external force.
- Law of technology change force: Significant breakthroughs or disruptions in existing technologies can lead to rapid changes in the technological landscape.
- Law of technology action and reaction: Different technologies interact with one another, often leading to a chain reaction effect.
- Measurement of technology change force: Quantifying the impact of disruptive innovations on existing technologies.
- Technology breakthroughs: Major advancements that have transformative effects on industries.
- Technology monopolies: Examining how dominant players can control markets and hinder competition.
- Openness in technologies: Emphasizing the importance of open-source platforms and collaboration for fostering innovation.
- Business opportunities related to technologies: Exploring how entrepreneurs can identify potential areas for technological advancement.
- Application of laws and corollaries to analyze the open-source RISC-V processor as a case study.
- Discussion on the role benchmarks play in applying these laws effectively.
- Provides a framework for understanding and predicting the rise or fall of technologies.
- Offers valuable insights into the dynamics of technological advancements and their implications on society and industries.

## Summary

In the article "Three Laws of Technology Rise or Fall" by Jianfeng Zhan, the author explores whether there are any laws that can explain or approximate the rise and fall of technology, similar to how Newton's laws of motion explain physical phenomena. After conducting a review of thirteen successful information technologies, Zhan concludes that there are indeed three fundamental laws of technology and five corollaries that can shed light on this subject. The three laws identified in the study are the laws of technology inertia, technology change force, and technology action and reaction. These laws describe the tendencies and forces at play when it comes to technological advancements. The law of technology inertia suggests that once a particular technology gains momentum, it is likely to continue its growth trajectory unless acted upon by an external force. The law of technology change force states that significant breakthroughs or disruptions in existing technologies can lead to rapid changes in the technological landscape. Finally, the law of technology action and reaction highlights how different technologies interact with one another, often leading to a chain reaction effect. To further support these laws, Zhan also derives five corollaries: measurement of technology change force, technology breakthroughs, technology monopolies, openness in technologies and business opportunities related to them. These corollaries provide additional insights into specific factors that influence the rise or fall of technologies. For example, measuring the change force helps quantify the impact of disruptive innovations on existing technologies. Technology breakthroughs refer to major advancements that have transformative effects on industries. Technology monopolies examine how dominant players can control markets and hinder competition. Openness in technologies emphasizes the importance of open-source platforms and collaboration for fostering innovation while business opportunities explore how entrepreneurs can identify potential areas for technological advancement. The author applies these laws and corollaries to analyze an emerging technology called the open-source RISC-V processor as a case study. Additionally, Zhan discusses the role benchmarks play in applying these laws effectively. Overall, this article provides a framework for understanding and predicting the rise or fall of technologies. By identifying three fundamental laws and five corollaries along with their implications on society and industries ,Zhan offers valuable insights into the dynamics of technological advancements .