# The decline of disruptive science and technology

**Authors:** Michael Park, Erin Leahey, Russell Funk  
**arXiv:** [2106.11184](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11184)  
**Date:** 2021-06-21  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/2106.11184v5/

## Key points

- Recent studies indicate a slowdown in major fields of science and technology
- Researchers analyze data from 45 million papers and 3.5 million patents
- Both papers and patents are becoming less likely to break with the past and push science and technology in new directions
- Decline in disruptiveness linked to a decrease in the use of diverse, newer, and external sources of knowledge
- Relying on less diverse work, one's own work, or older work is negatively associated with disruptive activity
- Decline in disruption driven by scientists' and inventors' reliance on a narrower set of existing knowledge
- Changing practices of scientific and technological production may be responsible for the trend
- Scientists and inventors may be allocating too much effort to writing rather than reading (and thinking)
- Reversing this trend requires a deeper understanding of the problem and rethinking strategies for organizing the production of science and technology

## Summary

This study examines the trends in scientific and technological progress over the past six decades. While theories of scientific and technological change suggest that prior knowledge enables future progress, recent studies have indicated a slowdown in major fields of science and technology. To investigate this further, the researchers analyze data from 45 million papers and 3.5 million patents across various disciplines. The findings reveal that both papers and patents are becoming less likely to break with the past and push science and technology in new directions. This pattern holds true across all fields, indicating a narrowing scope of existing knowledge informing contemporary discovery and invention. The decline in disruptiveness is linked to a decrease in the use of diverse, newer, and external sources of knowledge. Regression models confirm that relying on less diverse work, one's own work, or older work is negatively associated with disruptive activity. These results hold even after accounting for factors like average age and number of prior works produced by team members. The decline in disruption appears to be driven by scientists' and inventors' reliance on a narrower set of existing knowledge. The study suggests that this decline is not due to changes in citation practices or the quality of published work but represents a fundamental shift in science and technology itself. However, despite these declines, there remains a stable number of highly disruptive papers and patents being produced. The authors propose that changing practices of scientific and technological production may be responsible for this trend. They speculate that scientists and inventors may be allocating too much effort to writing rather than reading (and thinking), leading to declining use of prior knowledge. They suggest that reversing this trend would require a deeper understanding of the problem as well as rethinking strategies for organizing the production of science and technology in the future. Overall, while there are concerns about slowing innovative activity, the study offers reasons for optimism regarding future progress in science and technology if efforts are made to address these challenges effectively.