# Alliances and Conflict, or Conflict and Alliances? Appraising the Causal Effect of Alliances on Conflict

**Authors:** Benjamin Campbell  
**arXiv:** [1908.07100](https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.07100)  
**Date:** 2019-08-19  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/1908.07100v1/

## Key points

- Benjamin Campbell challenges the widely accepted notion that military alliances deter aggression
- He proposes an endogenous theory of alliances and conflict which synthesizes existing theories of alliance formation and the relationship between alliances and conflict
- Campbell argues that alliances may also influence the probability of conflict and be influenced by it
- Failing to account for this endogeneity can lead to simplistic theories of alliance politics and hinder our ability to identify causal effects
- To test this theory, he uses innovative generalized joint regression models that allow him to endogenize alliance formation on the causal path to conflict
- Ultimately, he finds that alliances neither deter nor provoke aggression
- This finding has significant implications for our understanding of interstate conflict and alliance politics, challenging traditional assumptions about the role of military alliances in preventing war.

## Summary

In his paper "Alliances and Conflict, or Conflict and Alliances? Appraising the Causal Effect of Alliances on Conflict," Benjamin Campbell challenges the widely accepted notion that military alliances deter aggression. He proposes an endogenous theory of alliances and conflict which synthesizes existing theories of alliance formation and the relationship between alliances and conflict. Campbell argues that alliances may also influence the probability of conflict and be influenced by it. Failing to account for this endogeneity can lead to simplistic theories of alliance politics and hinder our ability to identify causal effects. To test this theory, he uses innovative generalized joint regression models that allow him to endogenize alliance formation on the causal path to conflict. Ultimately, he finds that alliances neither deter nor provoke aggression. This finding has significant implications for our understanding of interstate conflict and alliance politics, challenging traditional assumptions about the role of military alliances in preventing war.