# Resilience Dynamics of Urban Water Security and Potential for Tipping Points

**Authors:** Elisabeth H. Krueger, Dietrich Borchardt, James W. Jawitz, Harald Klammler, Soohyun Yang, Jonatan Zischg, P. Suresh C. Rao  
**arXiv:** [1904.07863](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.07863)  
**Date:** 2019-04-16  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/1904.07863v2/

## Key points

- Cities are important for economic and social progress but face challenges in providing essential services like water supply
- Urban water supply security is defined by citizen's access to these services
- Resilience of these services depends on critical system elements or 'capitals' including water resources, infrastructure, finances, management efficacy, and community adaptation
- The authors used quantitative information from seven cities on four continents to create a systems dynamics model that simulates the impact and recovery cycles when water services are disrupted by stochastic shocks
- Systematic assessment of the parameter space produces an urban water resilience landscape allowing them to determine the position of each city along a continuous gradient from non-resilient to resilient systems
- Water-insecure and non-resilient cities risk being pushed into a poverty trap while cities with excess capitals risk being trapped in rigidity and crossing a tipping point from high to low services and collapse
- Community adaptation improves water security and resilience to varying degrees when public services are insufficient
- The study highlights the need for resilience thinking in governing urban water systems under global change pressures.

## Summary

Cities are the engines of economic and social progress but also face significant challenges in providing essential services such as water supply. This study investigates the resilience of urban water supply security which is defined in terms of the services that citizens receive. The resilience of these services depends on the availability and robustness of critical system elements or 'capitals' including water resources, infrastructure, finances, management efficacy and community adaptation. The authors translate quantitative information about these capitals from seven contrasting cities on four continents into parameters of a coupled systems dynamics model. They simulate the dynamics of impact and recovery cycles when water services are disrupted by recurring stochastic shocks. Resilience emerges under various constraints expressed in terms of each city's capital portfolio. Systematic assessment of the parameter space produces an urban water resilience landscape allowing them to determine the position of each city along a continuous gradient from water insecure and non-resilient to secure and resilient systems. The results show that several cities face stochastic disturbance regimes that challenge steady-state conditions and drive system collapse. While water-insecure and non-resilient cities risk being pushed into a poverty trap, cities with excess capitals risk being trapped in rigidity and crossing a tipping point from high to low services and collapse. Where public services are insufficient, community adaptation improves water security and resilience to varying degrees. The findings highlight the need for resilience thinking in governing urban water systems under global change pressures. Overall this study provides valuable insights into how different capitals contribute to urban water security resilience across diverse contexts worldwide.