# Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged

**Authors:** Lisandro Kaunitz, Shenjun Zhong, Javier Kreiner  
**arXiv:** [1710.02824](https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.02824)  
**Date:** 2017-10-08  
**Summary page:** https://www.summarizepaper.com/en/paper/1710.02824v1/

## Key points

- Authors Kaunitz, Zhong, and Kreiner explore online sports gambling industry
- Data analysts create forecast models skewing odds in favor of bookmakers
- Strategy to outsmart football bookmakers using probability information from odds
- Demonstrated profitability through simulations and real-money betting trial
- Revealed market inefficiencies and consistent success against bookmakers
- Exposed discriminatory practices against successful clients by industry
- Valuable insights on navigating industry with strategic analysis for advantages

## Summary

In their study titled "Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged," authors Lisandro Kaunitz, Shenjun Zhong, and Javier Kreiner delve into the world of online sports gambling. They highlight how the industry utilizes data analysts to create forecast models that skew the odds in favor of bookmakers. The authors introduce a unique approach to outsmart football bookmakers by leveraging the probability information embedded in publicly available odds. Through extensive simulations over a 10-year historical period using closing odds, a 6-month simulation with minute-to-minute odds, and a real-money betting trial spanning 5 months, they demonstrate the profitability of their strategy. The results not only reveal market inefficiencies but also showcase consistent success against bookmakers in both simulated and real-life scenarios. Furthermore, the study exposes discriminatory practices against successful clients employed by the sports gambling industry to compensate for these inefficiencies. By providing detailed insights into their betting experience, Kaunitz, Zhong, and Kreiner offer valuable observations on navigating an industry where strategic analysis can yield significant advantages over traditional approaches. This research serves as a compelling exploration of understanding and exploiting market dynamics for success in online sports gambling despite existing challenges and biases.